U.S.-China deal signals Trump’s team wants deescalation, leaving analysts wondering if this is a clean-up operation or longer term strategy

• The U.S. and China have agreed to a 90-day pause in escalating tariffs. By reducing rates by 115%, they offer markets a temporary reprieve and signal a potential shift toward de-escalation in trade tensions. While some view this as a clean-up of earlier chaotic policies, analysts see it as a step toward broader negotiations that could stabilize markets and ease fears of stagflation and recession.

Scott Bessent has at last got some good news for markets when it comes to U.S.-China relations: Both nations have agreed to a 90-day pause on tariffs with rates moving down 115%.

Economists have suggested the development can be framed in two ways. Firstly, the Trump administration may merely be clearing up its own self-conflicted chaos, or this may signal a push within the White House towards deescalating tensions with major trading partners.

This, in turn, could offer hope to trade partners such as the EU which are still working on ways to reach common ground with the Oval Office.

Whatever the reasoning, markets are bouncing even on the temporary reprieve of a near-three month window for further negotiations between the world’s two largest economies to take place.

At the time of writing the FTSE 100 is up 0.4% while the Nikkei 225 rose 0.4% for the day.

“I think what this is indicating, if you’re in Brussels or even elsewhere, is that there is a real thread within the Trump administration that is seeking to de-escalate the chaos that has … marked the first few months of the Trump administration,” Elizabeth Ingleson, assistant professor in the Department of International History at the London School of Economics, told Bloomberg TV in the moments following Bessent’s press conference.

“There is a thread that’s trying to create a set of norms and a set of ideas underpinning the actions that have been taken,” she explained but added: “I think it’s very important though—if I’m in Brussels or elsewhere—to keep in mind that this is very retroactive … that the chaos has already been unleashed.

“What Bessent is doing is cleaning up the mess, and it’s a really important clean-up and it’s an indication that there is a willingness on the part of both the United States and China to negotiate.”

While Treasury Secretary Bessent represents the side of negotiation, there remain some hardline tariff fans within the White House, added Ingleson: “There are others … who do take a very different approach to the the way in which trade and the United States’s place in the world should operate, and that isn’t going away yet.”

Devil in the details

In the coming months as talks progress, analysts will be pouring over the specifics of a potential long-term deal to establish whether Trump’s team have truly achieved their goal of rebalancing a trade deficit with China, or whether they have merely undone some of their own policies.

To briefly recap, President Trump’s economic sanctions on China began early into his term with a 10% tariff on the nation to address his concerns about fentanyl flowing from the China into the U.S. This was then bumped up to 20% a little over a month later.

On April 2, Trump’s so-called ‘Liberation Day’ he imposed a further 34% on China in order to address the trade deficit, to which China responded in kind. A week later President Trump confirmed a further hike to all Chinese imports, effective immediately, of 145% with China responding with it own measures of an increase of 125%.

Both sides have now agreed to lower their rates by 115% for the next 90 days, meaning Bejing faces a 30% tariff and the U.S. faces a 10% tariff.

Jamieson Greer, who is a trade representative for the U.S., outlined that Monday’s announcement addressed “the reciprocal tariff which was imposed by the United States on April 2 and the escalatory steps which followed,” adding “there are prior measures which change by product, by sector, by level etc” which could not be given a “specific number right now.”

With uncertainty rife in the market since Trump took the Oval Office—and with foreign policy changing so rapidly—analysts are celebrating the news as a short-term relief as opposed to a longer term, certain shift in the outlook.

“This is clearly just the start of a broader and more comprehensive negotiations, and we would expect both these tariff numbers to move down markedly over the coming months as deal talks progress,” wrote Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives in a note seen by Fortune this morning. “With US/China clearly on an accelerated path for a broader deal we believe new highs for the market and tech stocks are now on the table in 2025 as investors will likely focus on the next steps in these trade discussions which will happen over the coming months.”

Worst-case fears abating

Trump’s tariff plan—particularly the ‘Liberation Day’ update in early April which pushed import rates from China to more than 150%—prompted fears of a raft of unsavory economic outcomes.

JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon, for example, feared that an ‘America first’ policy could push key military and economic allies into the arms of rivals, while others suggested the economic sanctions would choke business investment and stunt economic growth while also raising prices for consumers as business passed on the higher costs.

Stagflation fears (rising prices with weak economic growth) were mounting, but Bloomberg Economics has revealed that the new rate on China means the average effective tariff rate on all U.S. imports is now 10.4 percentage points, down from 20.3 percentage points. As such, the ripple effects on GDP and inflation are more minimal, at a hit of 1.5% to growth and a bump of 0.9% to inflation.

Ives adds: “We also believe while supply chain and economic damage has been done by these onerous tariffs since Liberation Day…the Street will instead focus on normalized growth post this volatile six week period since April 2nd…and these massive tariff reductions at this time likely take a recession off the table for now in our view.”

“The magnitude of this tariff reduction is larger than expected,” writes Tai Hui, APAC chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “This reflects both sides recognizing the economic reality that tariffs will hit global growth and negotiation is a better option going forward.

“The 90-day period may not be sufficient for the two sides to reach a detailed agreement, but it keeps the pressure on the negotiation process. We are still waiting for further details on other terms of this agreement, for example, whether China would relax on rare earth export restrictions.

“Overall, we expect the market to get back on to a risk-on sentiment in the near term. Pressure on the Fed to cut rates may also ease for the time being.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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2025-05-12 10:37:22